PUBLIC METHODOLOGY · UPDATED OCTOBER 13, 2026
What the percentage means.
A Gamecrest IQ probability is an estimate produced from the inputs identified on the matchup card. It is not a pick, wager, promise, or statement that an outcome is certain.
When current-season records for both teams are present, their winning percentages feed a bounded logistic comparison with a home-field adjustment. If both probable starters and their ERA samples are verified, the starter difference adjusts the estimate by at most eight percentage points. ERA, WHIP, starter names, and source timestamps are context; missing records withhold the probability rather than create a generic 50/50 estimate.
Current team records are adjusted toward a neutral prior for small samples and compared with a bounded logistic function. When fresh paired moneylines are available, the model blends the sample-adjusted record estimate (45%) with the de-vigged market estimate (55%). If only one verified input is available, only that input is used. The displayed probability is bounded from 5% to 95%; incomplete inputs are withheld.
When current standings for both teams and non-zero game samples are available, their point percentages feed the bounded logistic comparison. Missing standings or unconfirmed goalie information are not guessed; the card identifies which inputs are absent.
Confidence describes the completeness and separation of the available evidence—not the chance that the displayed outcome is correct. For the NFL record-and-market view, medium confidence requires at least three books or four games of team-record sample, plus an estimate at least eight points from 50%. Other evidence remains low confidence unless its card says otherwise.
Connected sources
- MLB schedule, standings, probable pitchers, and pitcher statistics: MLB Stats API.
- NFL schedules, standings, and market snapshots: BALLDONTLIE; availability depends on the feed and freshness checks shown in the member view.
- NHL schedule and standings: NHL Web API when the configured rights and feed checks pass.
Gamecrest IQ does not reproduce articles, commentary, team logos, or league video. Provider labels identify factual data provenance and do not imply league sponsorship or endorsement.
Fail-closed rules
- No fictional game replaces an unavailable real-data response.
- No announced starter is inferred when the source has not announced one.
- No final result changes the probability that was displayed before a game.
- Verified, fresh market moneylines can be model inputs where the displayed model identifies them. Market movement alone does not establish informed action or predict an outcome.